Population, Revenues, Construction Job Growth Slow in Once-Hot States

Dec. 28, 2007
U.S. population grew a bit less than 1 percent from July 1, 2006, to July 1, 2007, the Census Bureau reported last week (www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php). The U.S. rate was little changed from 2006 but several fast-growing states slowed. Nevada was the fastest-growing state (2.9 percent, down from 3.5 percent in 2006), ahead of Arizona (2.8 percent, down from 3.6 percent), after two years in which Arizona had been slightly ahead of Nevada. They were followed by Utah (2.6percent in 2007, 3 percent in 2006), Idaho (2.4 percent, 2.7 percent) and Georgia (2.2 percent, 2.6 percent). Other states with large decelerations included Texas (2.1 percent, down from 2.5 percent in 2006, when Texas had many temporary hurricane evacuees) and Florida (1.1 percent, 1.8 percent).

U.S. population grew a bit less than 1 percent from July 1, 2006, to July 1, 2007, the Census Bureau reported last week (http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php). The U.S. rate was little changed from 2006 but several fast-growing states slowed. Nevada was the fastest-growing state (2.9 percent, down from 3.5 percent in 2006), ahead of Arizona (2.8 percent, down from 3.6 percent), after two years in which Arizona had been slightly ahead of Nevada. They were followed by Utah (2.6percent in 2007, 3 percent in 2006), Idaho (2.4 percent, 2.7 percent) and Georgia (2.2 percent, 2.6 percent). Other states with large decelerations included Texas (2.1 percent, down from 2.5 percent in 2006, when Texas had many temporary hurricane evacuees) and Florida (1.1 percent, 1.8 percent). The slowest growth rates were in New York (0.1 percent), Vermont (0.1 percent), Ohio (0 percent), Michigan (-0.3 percent) and Rhode Island (-0.4 percent).

Over time, population growth is a driver of many types of construction, while changes in growth rates can be a clue as to where construction opportunities are increasing or shrinking. The biggest accelerations in growth were in Louisiana (1.2 percent in 2007, after falling -5.6 percent in 2006 following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita), Mississippi (0.7 percent, -0.05 percent; also a rebound from the hurricanes) and Wyoming (2.0 percent, 1.2 percent).

The components of population change can also provide clues to demand for different types of construction. For instance, Utah consistently has by far the highest birth rate (2.1 percent of average 2006-07 population, whereas most states are close to the 1.4 percent national average). The 2006 estimated population was reduced by 644,000 and 2000-05 totals were also reduced. Cities often challenge the Census estimates. Such revisions can help localities qualify for larger state or federal grants that are tied to population. Census has accepted 48 challenges for 2006 (http://www.census.gov/popest/archives/challenges.html), including upward revisions of 38,000 for Detroit, 36,000 for New York City and 29,000 for Milwaukee.

Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released November data on seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment by state (http://www.bls.gov/sae). BLS reported that from October to November, total nonfarm employment increased in 38 states plus the District of Columbia, decreased in 10 states, and was unchanged in two states. From November 2006 to November 2007, employment increased everywhere except in Ohio, -0.2 percent, and Michigan, -1.8 percent.

The biggest year-over-year percentage gains were again in Utah, 4.3 percent; followed by Wyoming, 3.6 percent, Montana, 3.3 percent, Louisiana, 2.2 percent, and Colorado, 2 percent. Year-over-year, national employment was up 1.1 percent; construction was down 1.6 percent. Construction employment increased in November in only 20 states, fell in 17, and was unchanged (or within 100 of the October level) in 13 plus DC. Year-over-year, construction employment climbed in 28 states, fell in 18, and was unchanged in four plus DC.

The largest percentage gains in construction were in Wyoming, 12.5 percent; Montana, 10 percent; Utah, 9 percent; Mississippi, 8 percent; and Hawaii, Rhode Island and Tennessee, 5 percent each. The steepest drop was in Michigan, -9 percent, followed by Arizona, -8 percent; Alaska and Nevada, -5 percent each; and Minnesota, -4 percent. Given the national totals (residential, -4.7 percent; nonresidential +0.9 percent), it is likely most of the declines are in residential construction, but this level of detail is not available at the state level. (Construction data is combined with the small natural resources and mining totals in Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Maryland and Nebraska.)