Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, they say. The same might now be said of the state of the equipment rental industry. It looks from here like the rental channel continues to expand at a rate that would be the envy of many bricks-and-mortar or service industries, much less those intangible operations that talk about revenue wistfully, palms extended upward for another round of financing.
Still, according to more than a few observers, rental rates are falling or flat. And a few too many tons of iron are hitting the streets these days. Overcapacity may overwhelm profits.
Moody's recently forecast a pretty grim outlook for the industry's largest companies, including United Rentals, NationsRent, Neff and National Equipment Services. It based its opinion on four main factors: "soaring" debt from fleet investments and acquisitions; limited access to higher capital; higher interest rates; and increasing price competition heading into next year.
No doubt, all those factors could rain on the consolidation parade. But as far as the industry as a whole is concerned, the story hasn't changed. Renting is winning in its day-to-day debate with ownership. It's an argument that contractors and municipalities, industrial plants and homeowners are hearing and, most important, believing.
As news of work-force cuts and plant closings begins to creep into our headlines, some major rental companies are tempering their growth forecasts, but almost all are still projecting double-digit revenue gains next year. Sunbelt, for one, just reported a 56 percent gain over a five-month period.
Moody's said the focus on building younger fleets is creating a glut, particularly in the used equipment market. But newer machines are also creating new customers who see that all rental equipment is not ready for the junkyard, that it's actually a viable and long-term option to help them run their businesses more efficiently.
The investment community still doesn't get it (but then again, analysts don't rent equipment): The stock prices of the public companies might be at or near all-time lows, but the rental trend is at an all-time high.
The Moody's report also said independent companies might fair better than the larger companies in a downturn. Wall Street, which has financed the consolidation of the industry, suddenly sees the strength of the independent? Good to have it made official.
