The Portland Cement Association last week said it expects 2013 cement consumption to reach nearly 80 million metric tons, a 4.5-percent increase over 2012. Consumption levels will reach 86 million metric tons in 2014, an 8.1 percent year-over-year gain, PCA said.
Growth in U.S. construction markets, however, could be dampened by Congressional drama that erodes consumer confidence and hinders recovery, according to the latest PCA forecast.
“American consumers love drama,” said Edward Sullivan, PCA group vice president and chief economist. “Moreover, Congress knows how to create it, with more on the way when the debt ceiling talks resume in early 2014. Each time the political circus on Capitol Hill addresses extensions of the debt limit, budget approvals or the fiscal cliff, it harms the burgeoning economic momentum.”
During 2014, it is possible that all sectors of construction record growth — namely residential, nonresidential and possibly public, according to PCA. While the growth will be broad based, half of it anticipated for 2014 will come from residential construction activity where there is the largest amount of pent-up demand. The commercial and institutional sector will contribute another 25 percent.
Typically, when each sector contributes to growth, robust growth rates in cement consumption materializes. PCA predicts real construction spending to grow 1.3 percent in 2013 and by eight percent in 2014.
By 2018, the end of the forecast horizon, Portland cement consumption is expected to reach nearly 119 million metric tons — roughly 3-percent below the past cyclical peak in 2005, implying a 14-year recovery, according to PCA.
Based in Washington, D.C., with offices in Skokie, Ill., PCA represents cement companies in the United States and Canada. It conducts market development, engineering, research, education, and public affairs programs. For more information, visit www.cement.org.
