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The Rental Show– New Orleans, LA
February 6-8, 2012
RER 100 - The Hardest Year
Virtually everyone on the RER 100 agrees 2009 was a year they'd like to forget. But it may take time to get over this perfect storm.
Everybody felt it, in every business in every state, city and hamlet in North America. It was the fiercest recession they'd ever seen and virtually everyone on the RER 100 agreed. Economists called it the perfect storm of factors producing a catastrophic recession.
We also saw resiliency everywhere, the refusal to quit. Determination because their businesses were based on something solid and concrete, a sense of service, the fiber of the communities they lived in, builders and those who provided the materials to be builders.
Rental companies throughout North America downsized their fleets, let go of staff, closed branches, and cut costs every way they could. It was often painful and it often meant letting go of solid, loyal people with families and mortgages and kids in school during a period of skyrocketing unemployment. It meant painful conversations and difficult decisions, and no companies were exempt.
One of the hardest parts for many was the uncertainty, the feeling that it could last for years. Most rental company owners believe there is a hint of hope in the second half of 2010, or perhaps in 2011. There are a lot of economic indicators pointing in that direction: Customers bidding on more jobs, a bit more stimulus money being spent, roads and bridges being rebuilt. Inventories of empty houses are going down in many areas, some companies are hiring again. But credit remains tight, joblessness rampant and while some customers say there will be some projects coming up, other customers just simply were no longer there.
The RER 100 in 2010 covering 2009 volume decreased 25.3 percent compared with 2008 volume numbers, the largest single-year drop in the history of the chart, dating back to 1986. The top 10 of the RER 100 dropped 26.3 percent. The average rental volume decrease from companies with reported volumes in 2009 and 2010 — we can say it's the RER 100 equivalent of same-store growth or income from continuing operations — was 23.7 percent. Many were in the 30-percent range, even 40 or 50 percent plus. Fewer were single digit. Less than a handful realized increases. And for most, the first quarter of 2010 started out worse than 2009.
The national rental players set the tone in 2009 and going into 2010 by concentrating on improving their balance sheets, improving free cash flow generation and greater operating efficiencies designed to improve performance for the long term as well as solving short-term concerns. “We will enter the recovery with ample capital to invest in growth and with our arms more vigorously around value creation,” said industry leader United Rentals (No. 1) in its annual report. United Rentals, for example, reduced staff by 19 percent, not an uncommon number among the RER 100, and certainly not the highest.
The dramatic downturn in commercial construction was the common denominator faced by the RER 100 in 2009. The National Bureau of Economic Research determined that the recession in the United States began in December 2007 with private non-residential construction weakening throughout 2008 and 2009, exacerbated by the credit crisis that began in late 2008. Most forecasts are for commercial construction to continue to decline in 2010, although many companies are expecting improvement in the second half of 2010.
According to Gerry Plescia, president of Hertz Equipment Rental Corp. (No. 4), the first quarter of 2010 may have been the bottom point of the recession as it affects the rental industry.
“The decline into the winter season in the U.S. was much less severe than during the 2008-09 winter,” says Plescia. “What was really encouraging was we're seeing business, from the very first of the year and end of the holidays through today, grow from December 31 levels, which is a different pattern from last year where we saw business declining month after month from December to January to February to March and so on. This year the trajectory has been more normal where we see a seasonal improvement month after month in rental volume. On the commercial side, though it's still negative year over year, we're seeing a sequential improvement in projects coming out of the ground, February better than January, March better than February.
“It appears the first quarter of 2010 will be the cyclical and season trough of the recession. I think we'll see progressive seasonal growth and from a volume perspective, sometime early in the third quarter we may see a positive year-over-year volume move in the business.”
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© 2012 Penton Media Inc.
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